Graham's view
December 1st, 2011
The season may have recently ended - a time when most fans and media look back on almost ten months of exciting racing and results and positively dread the winter months to come. But for some of us lucky few, the new season is just around the corner! Yes, I’m already booking flights and hotels for my 2012 campaign, as well as meeting new and existing clients to discuss their plans for the next season. And I know that most of our top ‘pros are already back on their bikes after a week or two off them. There might still be six full weeks before the Tour Down Under begins in Australia, but that time will go so fast, the season might just as well be starting tomorrow, such is the bridging effect of planning so well, so early-on. But of course, you cannot start a new season until the last one has actually ended, and there is still a lot of tidying up to do before we can honestly say 2011 is over. Take the Alberto Contador case as just one example – it just rolls on, and on, and on, and may not even be concluded before next January. Surely, many people say, it’s got past the point where anyone outside of Contador’s group really cares? Well, I’m sure WADA and the UCI care as well – they desperately want closure on a case that will either question their governance of the sport if Contador gets the verdict – or cause turmoil if Contador loses and all the races he won since his positive drug-test in the 2010 are taken away from him. It’s hard to know which verdict might cause the most damage, but I’d hazard a guess and suggest the majority of people ‘in’ the sport would rather see Contador survive the day and leave the sport less harmed than if he had to give up his many wins. Either way, it’s vital that a clear verdict is reached, announced, and respected by one and all, so that the sport can move on. It’s been far too long already.
I’ve been quite mesmerised all year by the stand-off between a select number of elite teams and the UCI. And I’ve been equally impressed by how the UCI dealt with this by flirting and then courting ASO – their great enemy of recent times and the one organisation that the teams needed to befriend in order to form their new league in professional cycling. The fact is, neither the UCI nor ASO wants to see the teams getting any sort of power and taking with them a share of the TV rights from existing and new races - that just wouldn’t do! So has the ‘rebellion’ ended already already, or is there a further battle waiting ahead? Purely for my personal entertainment and pleasure I hope the battle has just started – I love a juicy side-show to the actual racing, especially when we’re still in the depths of winter. But in reality, if ASO and its flagship race, the Tour de France, are not willing to play ball there’s nothing the teams’ alliance can do about it, no matter how well organised they are as part of a group that possesses financiers Rothschild as a mighty backer. One assumes the ‘leaked’ documents that recently landed on the UCI’s head-table came from ASO itself, in a public show of strength and belief in their new relationship and a show of contempt for the teams. But imagine if ASO did agree to work with ‘the ‘rebels’ - that races like the Tour, Giro, Vuelta, and the six best Classics formed a new series of races in the years to come? The sport (and therefore those races within the sport) would still need to be governed by the UCI - they are, after all, the recognised experts in administrative and drug-testing work. But the potential of such a breakaway series of races is mouth-watering for those that want to see changes – and a veritable nightmare for the UCI if that happens. Will it, won’t it? Roll on 2012 and we’ll find out for sure!
The merging of the Leopard and Shack squads might prove to be a pre-cursor for many teams in the immediate years to come. After all, better two top teams combine to form a super-team, as opposed to remaining under-financed and under-performing if left to their own devices. Rumours suggested that Astana and Saxo Bank might follow the Shack-Leopard route and come together for 2012. But with the deadline for a UCI license now well past, such plans – if indeed there were any – will surely be put on-hold until next summer at the earliest. By which time other mergers might be in the offing. Aside from the hardship of people losing their jobs, I for one like the prospects of a merged team, for it throws together groups of people with very different dynamics - who are obliged to live and race and find success together when otherwise they’d be bitter rivals. Johan Bruyneel may have helped Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador to a total of nine Tour de France wins, but he’s never had a Classics specialist like Fabian Cancellara under his wings. Nor a top sprinter like Daniele Bennati, or a foraging warrior called Jens Voigt. Naturally, Bruyneel has always had the Tour primarily on his mind, but his enviable portfolio is about to be extended into other areas. If his ultimate goal is to find the Tour winner that we know is inside Andy Schleck, for sure Bruyneel will be visiting many other finish lines and podiums on the way ahead to July. And remember, the merger of Leopard and Shack might be the perfect antidote to the ‘star-buying power of Sky, BMC, and Quick-Step/Specialized. See, I’m already speculating about the future before the present is in the past!
BMC had quite a season in 2011, led by Cadel Evans’ Tour-winning success and time trial or one-day victories by Taylor Phinney and Greg Van Avermaet. BMC is now on the verge of becoming a super-team with the arrival of ‘stars like Philippe Gilbert, Thor Hushovd and Tejay Van Garderen in 2012. But can BMC be as good in the Tour with so many ‘stars on-board? One of the secrets of Evans’ Tour win was that he commanded 100-percent loyalty, exclusively, and was able to direct his teamates to do whatever he wished them to do. For most of the first week last July, the entire BMC team was seen at the front, helping chase down any escapes but, more importantly, keeping Evans clear of the sort of trouble that befell Sky’s Bradley Wiggins. Both Gilbert and Hushovd are quite capable of taking a turn or two at the front of a Tour peloton, but primarily they will be in the Tour for their own ambitions – stage-wins, at least one apiece – just as they were in 2011 while racing for Omega and Garmin respectively. For me, Van Garderen is the only new asset that BMC requires for its Tour defence. A brilliant climber and time trialist, ‘TJ’ was the one thing missing from BMC’s team last July, for as soon as the road rose upwards, Evans was all too often alone, save for a great effort by Brent Bookwalter in the French Alps.
Since Mark Cavendish confirmed his illustrious signature had gone to Team Sky for 2012, the media has been quick and forceful in its belief that even Team Sky is not clever enough to accommodate two leaders with two very different targets – the Green AND Yellow jerseys. Ironically, since the announcement of Cavendish’s arrival, the route revealed for the 2012 Tour de France shows greatly in favour of Bradley Wiggins with relatively few mountains and nearly 100-kilometres of time trials, making Sky’s double-edged plans more do-able, if still a bit risky. Ideally, Sky would let Cavendish ride the entire Giro but not go anywhere near the Tour, saving himself in the process for the Olympic Games road race on July 28th, while allowing the team to serve upon Wiggins, and only Wiggins. But the money Sky is paying Cavendish can only be justified if he wins several Tour stages and maybe that Green jersey in 2012. Team selection will be crucial, but there’s a silver-lining in also signing-up Bernhard Eisel – Cavendish’s favoured henchman at HTC, and a man who has to be in the Tour if Cavendish is in the Tour. People forget that as clever, brave, and fast as Eisel is before a sprint, he’s also a solid ‘rouleur’ who can spend all day chasing down escapes for both of Sky’s leaders. Maybe Sky will leave Edvald Boasson Hagen at home and bring in Matthew Hayman to ensure that Wiggins and Cavendish have seven hard workers totally at their disposal?
One of the most under-performing teams in 2011 might actually become a prominent component of the 2012 season. Quick-Step barely won a single race all year, something that’s been a feature of previous seasons since Tom Boonen and Stijn Devolder stopped winning a Classic or two between them. Indeed, if you take Sylvain Chavanel out of the equation, QS barely managed to make it into any decent escapes all year! But thanks to the arrival of Omega-Pharma and Specialized as co-sponsors, the new-look Quick-Step team will be a major force in the coming season. Riders like Tony Martin, Levi Leipheimer, and Bert Grabsch will breathe new fire into the team and virtually guarantee them wins across all types of races. Over the border, Rabobank has lost Langeveld and Weening to Green Edge and now places all its G.C hopes on Robert Gesink, with compatriot Steven Van Kruijswijk their ‘joker’ card. But its sprinting element has been fortified by an all-Australian trio of Graeme Brown, Michael Matthews and Mark Renshaw – though all three might end up working for the team’s No1 fastman, Theo Bos, if he recovers from injury.
In contrast to Quick-Step and Rabobank, Team Garmin seems to have held back on buying in expensive talent for the new season. In fact, with the exception of Heinrich Haussler, the team looks a lot more like the 2010 Garmin-Chipotle squad before a large contingent of ex-Cervelo riders joined them for 2011. The team has lost a lot of its staff and more than a few riders to Green Edge, yet it still retains a wealth of enviable talent. The enigmatic Haussler, Johan Van Summeren, Andreas Klier and Sep Van Marcke form their Classics crew, while stalwarts such as David Millar, Dan Martin, Christian Vande Velde, Ryder Hesjedal and Tom Danielson seem to be the men for G.C honours, with Tyler Farrar their No1 sprinter – a team relatively unchanged, then? Not quite…because Garmin is bringing in new coaching talent in Allan Peiper and the recently-retired, Charly Wegelius – two men who have so much to offer even this well-established team.
The world of cycling – and especially Australian cycling - will be looking very closely at the Green Edge team when it makes its entry in the Tour Down Under next January. Green Edge comes from the same country as Pegasus, the ill-fated team than never was, and because of that mess in 2010, Green Edge has even more to prove. Yet make no mistake, this is an entirely different prospect. Put together the likes of wealthy backer Gerry Ryan and his son Andrew, Shayne Bannan and Neil Stephens as the management, and throw in a treasure-trove of Australian talent like Matthew Goss, Simon Gerrans, Cameron Meyer and Jack Bobridge – you begin to get some idea of what this team is setting out to achieve. Ryan might be an excessively wealthy man, but he didn’t get there by luck – it was a mixture of hard work and sound business acumen, and he’ll be making sure this team has the fundamentals right before they even pedal a bike in anger. Of course, this is not a team just for the Aussies – Green Edge’s line-up features cyclists from all four corners of the globe, each of them there to perform to their utmost, but also there to attract a global sponsor - be it Japanese, Chinese, American, Australian or European. People like Ryan, Bannan and Stephens have been involved in cycling for over 25 years, and know how to get results by motivating their riders to get those results. Think of all those Olympic and Worlds’ medals won by Australian cyclists in the last quarter of a century, and you’ll find many of them lead back to what is now Green Edge’s core team of coaches and managers. If you then filter in some of the Anglo-Aussie rivalry of that quarter-century, Green Edge will naturally look to Sky as its marker, a team that has wisely maintained a strong Australian contingent in anticipation of the scrap to come!
Green Edge in particular will like the routes recently announced for the Giro and Tour, for both events have revealed a course that is wide open to any cyclists or teams with ambitions to make a name for themselves before the bigger fight for the G.C puts a stranglehold on the racing. The Giro still has its high mountain passes, as well as three time trials, but it looks as if the top contenders won’t need to make their move until the very last week – meaning the first two weeks could see a fresh return to a more traditional Giro when it’s a battle between sprinters’ teams and hopeful escapees, for stage and Maglia Rosa honours. Hilltop finishes in the middle week promise a series of surprise, opportunistic, winners that will require careful policing by the bigger teams before the Alps and Dolomites appear. But fewer transfers mean fresher legs and minds - something the 2011 Giro lacked throughout – and just about anything can happen until mountains like the Passo di Giau, Pian de Pampeago, and Passo di Stelvio crush most peoples’ ambitions. I’m sure either Ivan Basso or Vincenzo Nibali will win the 2012 Giro, but I’d love to see a gutsy ‘foreigner’ like Oliver Zaugg or Richie Porte make the podium as well.
The Tour in 2012 looks to be the ‘easiest’ in quite a long time – but if ever there was a race or a sport that depicts ‘easy’ as a very relative term, the Tour is it! Still, just one-and-a-half real Alpine stages and barely three in the Pyrenees, mean this is a wide-open race that a non-climbing specialist could actually win – as long as we can categorise Cadel Evans as being just that. Evans did well to stifle a smug grin when the route was launched in Paris in October, for it favours him more than anyone else in the business. Evans proved in 2011 that he fears no mountain, and no number of mountains, in the Tour. But the length of the two main time trials leans even more to his skills than the climbers would ideally like. Yet so long are these timed stages, and so perfectly placed within the route, that Bradley Wiggins seems to have an even greater chance in 2012 than he originally had in his crash-ruined 2011 Tour. Wiggins won a mountainous Dauphiné in June, and almost won a very gruelling Vuelta in September, so what can he do with that much experience on a route so devoid of similarly nasty ascents? The answer is he’ll push Evans very hard all the way, that is if Radio Shack hasn’t ambushed BMC somewhere along the way and put the Schleck brothers in control – it could be that sort of Tour!
We’re awaiting the route announcement of the Vuelta a España right now, but for sure it won’t be an easy one – it never is! But it’s unlikely to be as hard as the 2011 Vuelta, a race that I’ll remember for quite a while. Starting in Pamplona dictates that the Vuelta will re-visit the Basque Country for a few more days in 2012 before going either east into the Pyrenees or westwards towards Santander and the mountains of Cantabria and Asturias. I’m expecting a return to the Vuelta’s more traditional stomping grounds of the Sierras of Guadarrama - already a return to Bola del Mundo is planned there. And the race is certain to visit once again the hinterlands of Almeria and Andalucia, yet it needs do so in 2012 in slightly less scorching temperatures than this past event, when temperatures in the high 30’s almost ruined the stages in the south of the country. With the Worlds in hilly Limburg next September, the Vuelta will see fewer sprinters and more climbers in its starting line-up, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Evans makes a return to the race. The 2009 World Champion will be a favourite for the Dutch-hosted championships – and Evans has unfinished business to settle in Spain, having come so close to winning in 2009 before the locals ganged up on him when he had mechanical trouble.
Many people assume that a cycling photographer either finds alternative work for the winter or lives the life of Reilly on a beach somewhere. I sit somewhere between those two trains of thought, occupying myself with administrative duties to close down 2011 and start 2012 in a clean and tidy way, before heading to New Zealand and Australia for the remainder of the off-period. I’ve already overseen the production of my 2012 calendars, as well as a set of new posters that includes Mark Cavendish in Green and Cadel Evans in Yellow, and much of my time ‘down under’ will be spent ensuring that they somehow get sold in my absence. Motor-bike drivers need to be assigned for races in different parts of the world, and colleagues chosen for the races where I cannot get to because I’m on duty elsewhere. All of my clients need a truly worldwide service, and with more and more ‘new world’ races taking place against long-established races in Europe, it is quite a challenge to make sure everything is covered for everyone. Such thoughts aside, I only need a few weeks away from a bike-race to have my batteries re-charged, so I can assure you that by next January I’ll be running for that plane to Adelaide and the Tour Down Under with a big smile on my face, despite having to wrench myself away from New Zealand’s stunning coastline, mountains, and lakes… See you in 2012 then?
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